The hidden role of the pre-symptomatic individuals in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19

Nasser Al-Salti; Fatma Al-Musalhi; Maryam Al-Yahyai; Ibrahim M. Elmojtaba

doi:10.28919/cmbn/4990

The hidden role of the pre-symptomatic individuals in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19

Nasser Al-Salti, Fatma Al-Musalhi^*, Maryam Al-Yahyai, Ibrahim M. Elmojtaba

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

In this paper, a mathematical model with four different routes of transmission, namely, asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, symptomatic and environmental transmissions, has been proposed and analyzed to investigate the role of pre-symptomatic individuals in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak. Using the next generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number R₀ has been derived and then sensitivity analysis of the proposed model is presented. Existence and stability analysis of disease free and endemic equilibrium points have been discussed. Numerical simulations to demonstrate the effect of some model parameters related to pre-symptomatic transmission on the disease transmission dynamics have been carried out.

Original language	English
Article number	71
Pages (from-to)	1-22
Number of pages	22
Journal	Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience
Volume	2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.28919/cmbn/4990
Publication status	Published - 2020
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Basic reproduction number
COVID-19
Pre-symptomatic individuals
Sensitivity analysis
Stability analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Neuroscience(all)
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
Applied Mathematics

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abstract = "In this paper, a mathematical model with four different routes of transmission, namely, asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, symptomatic and environmental transmissions, has been proposed and analyzed to investigate the role of pre-symptomatic individuals in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak. Using the next generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number R0 has been derived and then sensitivity analysis of the proposed model is presented. Existence and stability analysis of disease free and endemic equilibrium points have been discussed. Numerical simulations to demonstrate the effect of some model parameters related to pre-symptomatic transmission on the disease transmission dynamics have been carried out.",

keywords = "Basic reproduction number, COVID-19, Pre-symptomatic individuals, Sensitivity analysis, Stability analysis",

author = "Nasser Al-Salti and Fatma Al-Musalhi and Maryam Al-Yahyai and Elmojtaba, {Ibrahim M.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 the author(s).",

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T1 - The hidden role of the pre-symptomatic individuals in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19

AU - Al-Salti, Nasser

AU - Al-Musalhi, Fatma

AU - Al-Yahyai, Maryam

AU - Elmojtaba, Ibrahim M.

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - In this paper, a mathematical model with four different routes of transmission, namely, asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, symptomatic and environmental transmissions, has been proposed and analyzed to investigate the role of pre-symptomatic individuals in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak. Using the next generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number R0 has been derived and then sensitivity analysis of the proposed model is presented. Existence and stability analysis of disease free and endemic equilibrium points have been discussed. Numerical simulations to demonstrate the effect of some model parameters related to pre-symptomatic transmission on the disease transmission dynamics have been carried out.

AB - In this paper, a mathematical model with four different routes of transmission, namely, asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, symptomatic and environmental transmissions, has been proposed and analyzed to investigate the role of pre-symptomatic individuals in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak. Using the next generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number R0 has been derived and then sensitivity analysis of the proposed model is presented. Existence and stability analysis of disease free and endemic equilibrium points have been discussed. Numerical simulations to demonstrate the effect of some model parameters related to pre-symptomatic transmission on the disease transmission dynamics have been carried out.

KW - Basic reproduction number

KW - COVID-19

KW - Pre-symptomatic individuals

KW - Sensitivity analysis

KW - Stability analysis

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JO - Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience

JF - Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience

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The hidden role of the pre-symptomatic individuals in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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