The hidden role of the pre-symptomatic individuals in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19

Nasser Al-Salti, Fatma Al-Musalhi*, Maryam Al-Yahyai, Ibrahim M. Elmojtaba

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

In this paper, a mathematical model with four different routes of transmission, namely, asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, symptomatic and environmental transmissions, has been proposed and analyzed to investigate the role of pre-symptomatic individuals in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak. Using the next generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number R0 has been derived and then sensitivity analysis of the proposed model is presented. Existence and stability analysis of disease free and endemic equilibrium points have been discussed. Numerical simulations to demonstrate the effect of some model parameters related to pre-symptomatic transmission on the disease transmission dynamics have been carried out.

Original languageEnglish
Article number71
Pages (from-to)1-22
Number of pages22
JournalCommunications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience
Volume2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Basic reproduction number
  • COVID-19
  • Pre-symptomatic individuals
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Stability analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Neuroscience(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

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