TY - JOUR
T1 - The hidden role of the pre-symptomatic individuals in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19
AU - Al-Salti, Nasser
AU - Al-Musalhi, Fatma
AU - Al-Yahyai, Maryam
AU - Elmojtaba, Ibrahim M.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 the author(s).
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - In this paper, a mathematical model with four different routes of transmission, namely, asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, symptomatic and environmental transmissions, has been proposed and analyzed to investigate the role of pre-symptomatic individuals in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak. Using the next generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number R0 has been derived and then sensitivity analysis of the proposed model is presented. Existence and stability analysis of disease free and endemic equilibrium points have been discussed. Numerical simulations to demonstrate the effect of some model parameters related to pre-symptomatic transmission on the disease transmission dynamics have been carried out.
AB - In this paper, a mathematical model with four different routes of transmission, namely, asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, symptomatic and environmental transmissions, has been proposed and analyzed to investigate the role of pre-symptomatic individuals in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak. Using the next generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number R0 has been derived and then sensitivity analysis of the proposed model is presented. Existence and stability analysis of disease free and endemic equilibrium points have been discussed. Numerical simulations to demonstrate the effect of some model parameters related to pre-symptomatic transmission on the disease transmission dynamics have been carried out.
KW - Basic reproduction number
KW - COVID-19
KW - Pre-symptomatic individuals
KW - Sensitivity analysis
KW - Stability analysis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85100216218&partnerID=8YFLogxK
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U2 - 10.28919/cmbn/4990
DO - 10.28919/cmbn/4990
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85100216218
SN - 2052-2541
VL - 2020
SP - 1
EP - 22
JO - Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience
JF - Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience
M1 - 71
ER -