Time-frequency co-movements between oil prices and interest rates

Evidence from a wavelet-based approach

Walid Mensi, Mobeen Ur Rehman, Khamis Al Yahyaee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

This paper investigates time–frequency co-movements between crude oil prices and interest rates. To test this relationship, the study applied a continuous wavelet and cross wavelet approaches to data from West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices and interest rates in the United States (U.S.). Results from the sample period revealed significant relationships, in the intermediate term, between WTI crude oil prices and U.S. interest rates. Moreover, co-movements between oil price and interest rate variables were especially sensitive during abnormal political events and periods of financial ‘meltdown’. We further use Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC) and Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC) methods to investigate the impacts of five major control variables namely GDP growth, unemployment, three-month Treasury bill, CPI index and industrial production index. The results show a powerful impact of control variables on oil-interest rates co-movements under different frequencies. Finally, we show evidence of co-integrating long run relationship between oil markets and control variables. These results have important implications for energy investors and policy makers.

Original languageEnglish
JournalNorth American Journal of Economics and Finance
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - Jan 1 2018

Fingerprint

Comovement
Wavelets
Oil prices
Interest rates
Control variable
Crude oil price
Long-run relationship
Politicians
Oil
Energy
GDP growth
Oil markets
Investors
Unemployment
Industrial production

Keywords

  • Co-movements
  • Interest rates
  • Multivariate wavelet approach
  • Oil prices

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

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title = "Time-frequency co-movements between oil prices and interest rates: Evidence from a wavelet-based approach",
abstract = "This paper investigates time–frequency co-movements between crude oil prices and interest rates. To test this relationship, the study applied a continuous wavelet and cross wavelet approaches to data from West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices and interest rates in the United States (U.S.). Results from the sample period revealed significant relationships, in the intermediate term, between WTI crude oil prices and U.S. interest rates. Moreover, co-movements between oil price and interest rate variables were especially sensitive during abnormal political events and periods of financial ‘meltdown’. We further use Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC) and Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC) methods to investigate the impacts of five major control variables namely GDP growth, unemployment, three-month Treasury bill, CPI index and industrial production index. The results show a powerful impact of control variables on oil-interest rates co-movements under different frequencies. Finally, we show evidence of co-integrating long run relationship between oil markets and control variables. These results have important implications for energy investors and policy makers.",
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