Framework for determining airport daily departure and arrival delay thresholds

statistical modelling approach

Ronald Wesonga, Fabian Nabugoomu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The study derives a framework for assessing airport efficiency through evaluating optimal arrival and departure delay thresholds. Assumptions of airport efficiency measurements, though based upon minimum numeric values such as 15 min of turnaround time, cannot be extrapolated to determine proportions of delay-days of an airport. This study explored the concept of delay threshold to determine the proportion of delay-days as an expansion of the theory of delay and our previous work. Data-driven approach using statistical modelling was employed to a limited set of determinants of daily delay at an airport. For the purpose of testing the efficacy of the threshold levels, operational data for Entebbe International Airport were used as a case study. Findings show differences in the proportions of delay at departure (μ = 0.499; 95 % CI = 0.023) and arrival (μ = 0.363; 95 % CI = 0.022). Multivariate logistic model confirmed an optimal daily departure and arrival delay threshold of 60 % for the airport given the four probable thresholds {50, 60, 70, 80}. The decision for the threshold value was based on the number of significant determinants, the goodness of fit statistics based on the Wald test and the area under the receiver operating curves. These findings propose a modelling framework to generate relevant information for the Air Traffic Management relevant in planning and measurement of airport operational efficiency.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1026
JournalSpringerPlus
Volume5
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1 2016

Fingerprint

Airports
Modeling
Proportion
Airport efficiency
Air traffic management
Goodness of fit
Planning
Operational efficiency
Statistics
Testing
Efficiency measurement
Wald test
Logistic model
Efficacy

Keywords

  • Airport
  • Delay threshold
  • Efficiency
  • Receiver operating curves
  • Statistical models

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

Cite this

Framework for determining airport daily departure and arrival delay thresholds : statistical modelling approach. / Wesonga, Ronald; Nabugoomu, Fabian.

In: SpringerPlus, Vol. 5, No. 1, 1026, 01.12.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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