Effect of socio-economic factors on EV/HEV/PHEV adoption rate in Ontario

Lena Ahmadi, Eric Croiset, Ali Elkamel, Peter L. Douglas, Evgueniy Entchev, Sabah A. Abdul-Wahab, Pedram Yazdanpanah

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

As a response to the threat of pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs), namely, Electric Vehicles (EVs), Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) have been invented. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of socio-economic factors on AFV adoption rates in Ontario between the years 2012 to 2050. This paper focuses on analyzing EV, HEV and PHEV popularity in Ontario and discusses various socio-economic factors affecting adoption rates. The number of light duty vehicles sold in the future is initially forecasted. In the next step, a penetration function is developed which consists of two parts; the diffusion rate and the socio-economic factors. Three general scenarios are considered when deploying the penetration function. Each scenario presents the weight assigned to the diffusion rate and the socio-economic factors. The socio-economic section is developed by using the historical trend of the all-in costs of vehicles over the time period of years 1996-2012. Vehicles' all-in costs depend on drivers' age, gender, location, monthly insurance, daily driving distance, and traffic, in addition to production year, make, model, trim, body and transmission of vehicles. In this study, aggressive, average and mild all-in costs are studied for the adoption rates for male and female drivers separately. Overall, our results indicate that EV, HEV and PHEV adoption will increase substantially in the future, comprising of approximately 30%-38% (dependent on the considered scenario) of the total conventional vehicles sold by 2050.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)93-104
Number of pages12
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume98
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 1 2015

Fingerprint

Plug-in hybrid vehicles
Hybrid vehicles
Ontario
Electric vehicles
Economics
Costs and Cost Analysis
Alternative fuels
Costs
Insurance
Electric vehicle
Socioeconomic factors
Gas emissions
Greenhouse gases
Gases
Pollution
Light
Weights and Measures

Keywords

  • Alternative Fuel Vehicles
  • Diffusion rate
  • Energy
  • Penetration function
  • Socio-economic factors
  • Transportation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Business and International Management
  • Management of Technology and Innovation
  • Applied Psychology

Cite this

Effect of socio-economic factors on EV/HEV/PHEV adoption rate in Ontario. / Ahmadi, Lena; Croiset, Eric; Elkamel, Ali; Douglas, Peter L.; Entchev, Evgueniy; Abdul-Wahab, Sabah A.; Yazdanpanah, Pedram.

In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 98, 01.09.2015, p. 93-104.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Ahmadi, Lena ; Croiset, Eric ; Elkamel, Ali ; Douglas, Peter L. ; Entchev, Evgueniy ; Abdul-Wahab, Sabah A. ; Yazdanpanah, Pedram. / Effect of socio-economic factors on EV/HEV/PHEV adoption rate in Ontario. In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2015 ; Vol. 98. pp. 93-104.
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