Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into import prices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration

Almukhtar S. Al-Abri, Barry K. Goodwin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

24 Citations (Scopus)


We document a significant threshold cointegrating relationship among effective nominal exchange rates and import prices. Using quarterly data for five industries of 16 OECD countries, we find that the degree of pass-through improves dramatically from the 50% average documented in the literature once threshold effects are recognized. The results of our threshold cointegration model show that import prices respond faster and by a larger extent to nominal exchange rate shocks than is the case for more conventional models. These findings give empirical support to the hypothesis that an equilibrium rate of pass-through exists (e.g. [Bacchetta, P., & Van Wincoop, E. (2005). A Theory of the currency denomination of international trade, Journal of International Economics 67, 295-319; Devereux, M., Engel, C., & Storgaard, P. (2004). Endogenous exchange rate pass-through when nominal prices are set in advance, Journal of International Economics 63(2), 263-291]).

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)142-161
Number of pages20
JournalInternational Review of Economics and Finance
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2009



  • Equilibrium pass-through
  • Exchange rate pass-through
  • Non-linear estimation
  • OECD
  • Threshold cointegration

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

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