Monitoring and modeling urban expansion using GIS & RS: Case study from Muscat, Oman

This research aims to measure and to model the urban expansion of Greater Muscat using the combined techniques of geographical information systems (GIS) and satellite remote sensing (RS). Basing on detailed datasets and knowledge of historical land use maps, attempts were made to simulate future growth patterns of the city. A significantly detailed dataset of land use for Greater Muscat, derived from an assemblage of aerial photographs and high resolution satellite imagery, was assessed. The outcome of this exercise was the design of six land use maps covering the years 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2003. The results show that the area of Greater Muscat has expanded by 650% in the period 1970-2003 with an annual growth rate of approximately 20%. An important objective of this study is to determine the extent to which such changes could be modeled and used to forecast and simulate patterns of change in the future. After intensive literature review, the SLEUTH model, developed by Keith Clarke from Santa Barbara University, was employed. Six image inputs (slope, land use, excluded areas, urban extent, transportation and hillshade) were used to model future urban expansion. The SLEUTH model agreed with average annual increased especially the average of increased between 1990 - 2003. The model was also be able to identify the sequences of future urban expansion.