TY - JOUR
T1 - The Impact of Mobility between Rural Areas and Forests on the Spread of Zika
AU - Al-Maqrashi, Kifah
AU - Al-Musalhi, Fatma
AU - Elmojtaba, Ibrahim M.
AU - Al-Salti, Nasser
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Kifah Al-Maqrashi, Fatma Al-Musalhi, Ibrahim M. ELmojtaba, Nasser Al-Salti.
PY - 2022/12/22
Y1 - 2022/12/22
N2 - A mathematical model of Zika virus transmission incorporating human movement between rural areas and nearby forests is presented to investigate the role of human movement in the spread of Zika virus infections in human and mosquito populations. Proportions of both susceptible and infected humans living in rural areas are assumed to move to nearby forest areas. Direct, indirect and vertical transmission routes are incorporated for all populations. Mathematical analysis of the proposed model has been presented. The analysis starts with normalizing the proposed model. Positivity and boundedness of solutions to the normalized model have been then addressed. The basic reproduction number has been calculated using the next generation matrix method and its relation to the three routes of disease transmission has been presented. The sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number to all model parameters has been investigated. The analysis also includes existence and stability of disease free and endemic equilibrium points. Bifurcation analysis has been also carried out. Finally, numerical solutions to the normalized model have been obtained to confirm the theoretical results and to demonstrate the impact of human movement in the disease transmission in human and mosquito populations.
AB - A mathematical model of Zika virus transmission incorporating human movement between rural areas and nearby forests is presented to investigate the role of human movement in the spread of Zika virus infections in human and mosquito populations. Proportions of both susceptible and infected humans living in rural areas are assumed to move to nearby forest areas. Direct, indirect and vertical transmission routes are incorporated for all populations. Mathematical analysis of the proposed model has been presented. The analysis starts with normalizing the proposed model. Positivity and boundedness of solutions to the normalized model have been then addressed. The basic reproduction number has been calculated using the next generation matrix method and its relation to the three routes of disease transmission has been presented. The sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number to all model parameters has been investigated. The analysis also includes existence and stability of disease free and endemic equilibrium points. Bifurcation analysis has been also carried out. Finally, numerical solutions to the normalized model have been obtained to confirm the theoretical results and to demonstrate the impact of human movement in the disease transmission in human and mosquito populations.
KW - Basic Reproduction Number
KW - Bifurcation Analysis
KW - Sensitivity Analysis
KW - Stability Analysis
KW - Vertical Transmission
KW - Zika
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85144417164&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85144417164&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://arxiv.org/abs/2108.11331
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/23ae1520-75ce-3322-9903-d788fad64278/
U2 - 10.55630/j.biomath.2022.12.149
DO - 10.55630/j.biomath.2022.12.149
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85144417164
SN - 1314-684X
VL - 11
JO - Biomath
JF - Biomath
IS - 2
M1 - 2212149
ER -
