Abstract
Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 161-176 |
| Number of pages | 16 |
| Journal | The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology |
| Volume | 2 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Mar 1 2017 |
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Hepatology
- Gastroenterology
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Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015 : a modelling study. / Blach, Sarah; Zeuzem, Stefan; Manns, Michael; Altraif, Ibrahim; Duberg, Ann Sofi; Muljono, David H.; Waked, Imam; Alavian, Seyed M.; Lee, Mei Hsuan; Negro, Francesco; Abaalkhail, Faisal; Abdou, Ahmed; Abdulla, Maheeba; Rached, Antoine Abou; Aho, Inka; Akarca, Ulus; Al Ghazzawi, Imad; Al Kaabi, Saad; Al Lawati, Faryal; Al Namaani, Khalid; Al Serkal, Youssif; Al-Busafi, Said A.; Al-Dabal, Layla; Aleman, Soo; Alghamdi, Abdullah S.; Aljumah, Abdulrahman A.; Al-Romaihi, Hamad E.; Andersson, Monique I.; Arendt, Vic; Arkkila, Perttu; Assiri, Abdullah M.; Baatarkhuu, Oidov; Bane, Abate; Ben-Ari, Ziv; Bergin, Colm; Bessone, Fernando; Bihl, Florian; Bizri, Abdul R.; Blachier, Martin; Blasco, Antonio J.; Mello, Carlos E.Brandão; Bruggmann, Philip; Brunton, Cheryl R.; Calinas, Filipe; Chan, Henry L.Y.; Chaudhry, Asad; Cheinquer, Hugo; Chen, Chien Jen; Chien, Rong Nan; Choi, Moon Seok; Christensen, Peer B.; Chuang, Wan Long; Chulanov, Vladimir; Cisneros, Laura; Clausen, Mette R.; Cramp, Matthew E.; Craxi, Antonio; Croes, Esther A.; Dalgard, Olav; Daruich, Jorge R.; de Ledinghen, Victor; Dore, Gregory J.; El-Sayed, Manal H.; Ergör, Gul; Esmat, Gamal; Estes, Chris; Falconer, Karolin; Farag, Elmoubashar; Ferraz, Maria L.G.; Ferreira, Paulo R.; Flisiak, Robert; Frankova, Sona; Gamkrelidze, Ivane; Gane, Ed; García-Samaniego, Javier; Khan, Amir Ghafoor; Gountas, Ilias; Goldis, Adrian; Gottfredsson, Magnús; Grebely, Jason; Gschwantler, Michael; Pessôa, Mário Guimarães; Gunter, Jessie; Hajarizadeh, Behzad; Hajelssedig, Omer; Hamid, Saeed; Hamoudi, Waseem; Hatzakis, Angelos; Himatt, Sayed M.; Hofer, Harald; Hrstic, Irena; Hui, Yee Tak; Hunyady, Bela; Idilman, Ramazan; Jafri, Wasim; Jahis, Rohani; Janjua, Naveed Z.; Jarčuška, Peter; Jeruma, Agita; Jonasson, Jón G.; Kamel, Yasser; Kao, Jia Horng; Kaymakoglu, Sabahattin; Kershenobich, David; Khamis, Jawad; Kim, Young S.; Kondili, Loreta; Koutoubi, Zaher; Krajden, Mel; Krarup, Henrik; Lai, Moon sing; Laleman, Wim; Lao, Wai cheung; Lavanchy, Daniel; Lázaro, Pablo; Leleu, Henri; Lesi, Olufunmilayo; Lesmana, Laurentius A.; Li, Michael; Liakina, Valentina; Lim, Young Suk; Luksic, Boris; Mahomed, Adam; Maimets, Matti; Makara, Mihály; Malu, Abraham O.; Marinho, Rui T.; Marotta, Paul; Mauss, Stefan; Memon, Muhammad S.; Correa, Maria C.Mendes; Mendez-Sanchez, Nahum; Merat, Shahin; Metwally, Ammal M.; Mohamed, Rosmawati; Moreno, Christophe; Mourad, Fadi H.; Müllhaupt, Beat; Murphy, Kimberly; Nde, Helen; Njouom, Richard; Nonkovic, Diana; Norris, Suzanne; Obekpa, Solomon; Oguche, Stephen; Olafsson, Sigurður; Oltman, Marian; Omede, Ogu; Omuemu, Casimir; Opare-Sem, Ohene; Øvrehus, Anne L.H.; Owusu-Ofori, Shirley; Oyunsuren, Tsendsuren S.; Papatheodoridis, George; Pasini, Ken; Peltekian, Kevork M.; Phillips, Richard O.; Pimenov, Nikolay; Poustchi, Hossein; Prabdial-Sing, Nishi; Qureshi, Huma; Ramji, Alnoor; Razavi-Shearer, Devin; Razavi-Shearer, Kathryn; Redae, Berhane; Reesink, Henk W.; Ridruejo, Ezequiel; Robbins, Sarah; Roberts, Lewis R.; Roberts, Stuart K.; Rosenberg, William M.; Roudot-Thoraval, Françoise; Ryder, Stephen D.; Safadi, Rifaat; Sagalova, Olga; Salupere, Riina; Sanai, Faisal M.; Avila, Juan F.Sanchez; Saraswat, Vivek; Sarmento-Castro, Rui; Sarrazin, Christoph; Schmelzer, Jonathan D.; Schréter, Ivan; Seguin-Devaux, Carole; Shah, Samir R.; Sharara, Ala I.; Sharma, Manik; Shevaldin, Anatoly; Shiha, Gamal E.; Sievert, William; Sonderup, Mark; Souliotis, Kyriakos; Speiciene, Danute; Sperl, Jan; Stärkel, Peter; Stauber, Rudolf E.; Stedman, Catherine; Struck, Daniel; Su, Tung Hung; Sypsa, Vana; Tan, Soek Siam; Tanaka, Junko; Thompson, Alexander J.; Tolmane, Ieva; Tomasiewicz, Krzysztof; Valantinas, Jonas; Van Damme, Pierre; van der Meer, Adriaan J.; van Thiel, Ingo; Van Vlierberghe, Hans; Vince, Adriana; Vogel, Wolfgang; Wedemeyer, Heiner; Weis, Nina; Wong, Vincent WS; Yaghi, Cesar; Yosry, Ayman; Yuen, Man fung; Yunihastuti, Evy; Yusuf, Aasim; Zuckerman, Eli; Razavi, Homie.
In: The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Vol. 2, No. 3, 01.03.2017, p. 161-176.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015
T2 - a modelling study
AU - Blach, Sarah
AU - Zeuzem, Stefan
AU - Manns, Michael
AU - Altraif, Ibrahim
AU - Duberg, Ann Sofi
AU - Muljono, David H.
AU - Waked, Imam
AU - Alavian, Seyed M.
AU - Lee, Mei Hsuan
AU - Negro, Francesco
AU - Abaalkhail, Faisal
AU - Abdou, Ahmed
AU - Abdulla, Maheeba
AU - Rached, Antoine Abou
AU - Aho, Inka
AU - Akarca, Ulus
AU - Al Ghazzawi, Imad
AU - Al Kaabi, Saad
AU - Al Lawati, Faryal
AU - Al Namaani, Khalid
AU - Al Serkal, Youssif
AU - Al-Busafi, Said A.
AU - Al-Dabal, Layla
AU - Aleman, Soo
AU - Alghamdi, Abdullah S.
AU - Aljumah, Abdulrahman A.
AU - Al-Romaihi, Hamad E.
AU - Andersson, Monique I.
AU - Arendt, Vic
AU - Arkkila, Perttu
AU - Assiri, Abdullah M.
AU - Baatarkhuu, Oidov
AU - Bane, Abate
AU - Ben-Ari, Ziv
AU - Bergin, Colm
AU - Bessone, Fernando
AU - Bihl, Florian
AU - Bizri, Abdul R.
AU - Blachier, Martin
AU - Blasco, Antonio J.
AU - Mello, Carlos E.Brandão
AU - Bruggmann, Philip
AU - Brunton, Cheryl R.
AU - Calinas, Filipe
AU - Chan, Henry L.Y.
AU - Chaudhry, Asad
AU - Cheinquer, Hugo
AU - Chen, Chien Jen
AU - Chien, Rong Nan
AU - Choi, Moon Seok
AU - Christensen, Peer B.
AU - Chuang, Wan Long
AU - Chulanov, Vladimir
AU - Cisneros, Laura
AU - Clausen, Mette R.
AU - Cramp, Matthew E.
AU - Craxi, Antonio
AU - Croes, Esther A.
AU - Dalgard, Olav
AU - Daruich, Jorge R.
AU - de Ledinghen, Victor
AU - Dore, Gregory J.
AU - El-Sayed, Manal H.
AU - Ergör, Gul
AU - Esmat, Gamal
AU - Estes, Chris
AU - Falconer, Karolin
AU - Farag, Elmoubashar
AU - Ferraz, Maria L.G.
AU - Ferreira, Paulo R.
AU - Flisiak, Robert
AU - Frankova, Sona
AU - Gamkrelidze, Ivane
AU - Gane, Ed
AU - García-Samaniego, Javier
AU - Khan, Amir Ghafoor
AU - Gountas, Ilias
AU - Goldis, Adrian
AU - Gottfredsson, Magnús
AU - Grebely, Jason
AU - Gschwantler, Michael
AU - Pessôa, Mário Guimarães
AU - Gunter, Jessie
AU - Hajarizadeh, Behzad
AU - Hajelssedig, Omer
AU - Hamid, Saeed
AU - Hamoudi, Waseem
AU - Hatzakis, Angelos
AU - Himatt, Sayed M.
AU - Hofer, Harald
AU - Hrstic, Irena
AU - Hui, Yee Tak
AU - Hunyady, Bela
AU - Idilman, Ramazan
AU - Jafri, Wasim
AU - Jahis, Rohani
AU - Janjua, Naveed Z.
AU - Jarčuška, Peter
AU - Jeruma, Agita
AU - Jonasson, Jón G.
AU - Kamel, Yasser
AU - Kao, Jia Horng
AU - Kaymakoglu, Sabahattin
AU - Kershenobich, David
AU - Khamis, Jawad
AU - Kim, Young S.
AU - Kondili, Loreta
AU - Koutoubi, Zaher
AU - Krajden, Mel
AU - Krarup, Henrik
AU - Lai, Moon sing
AU - Laleman, Wim
AU - Lao, Wai cheung
AU - Lavanchy, Daniel
AU - Lázaro, Pablo
AU - Leleu, Henri
AU - Lesi, Olufunmilayo
AU - Lesmana, Laurentius A.
AU - Li, Michael
AU - Liakina, Valentina
AU - Lim, Young Suk
AU - Luksic, Boris
AU - Mahomed, Adam
AU - Maimets, Matti
AU - Makara, Mihály
AU - Malu, Abraham O.
AU - Marinho, Rui T.
AU - Marotta, Paul
AU - Mauss, Stefan
AU - Memon, Muhammad S.
AU - Correa, Maria C.Mendes
AU - Mendez-Sanchez, Nahum
AU - Merat, Shahin
AU - Metwally, Ammal M.
AU - Mohamed, Rosmawati
AU - Moreno, Christophe
AU - Mourad, Fadi H.
AU - Müllhaupt, Beat
AU - Murphy, Kimberly
AU - Nde, Helen
AU - Njouom, Richard
AU - Nonkovic, Diana
AU - Norris, Suzanne
AU - Obekpa, Solomon
AU - Oguche, Stephen
AU - Olafsson, Sigurður
AU - Oltman, Marian
AU - Omede, Ogu
AU - Omuemu, Casimir
AU - Opare-Sem, Ohene
AU - Øvrehus, Anne L.H.
AU - Owusu-Ofori, Shirley
AU - Oyunsuren, Tsendsuren S.
AU - Papatheodoridis, George
AU - Pasini, Ken
AU - Peltekian, Kevork M.
AU - Phillips, Richard O.
AU - Pimenov, Nikolay
AU - Poustchi, Hossein
AU - Prabdial-Sing, Nishi
AU - Qureshi, Huma
AU - Ramji, Alnoor
AU - Razavi-Shearer, Devin
AU - Razavi-Shearer, Kathryn
AU - Redae, Berhane
AU - Reesink, Henk W.
AU - Ridruejo, Ezequiel
AU - Robbins, Sarah
AU - Roberts, Lewis R.
AU - Roberts, Stuart K.
AU - Rosenberg, William M.
AU - Roudot-Thoraval, Françoise
AU - Ryder, Stephen D.
AU - Safadi, Rifaat
AU - Sagalova, Olga
AU - Salupere, Riina
AU - Sanai, Faisal M.
AU - Avila, Juan F.Sanchez
AU - Saraswat, Vivek
AU - Sarmento-Castro, Rui
AU - Sarrazin, Christoph
AU - Schmelzer, Jonathan D.
AU - Schréter, Ivan
AU - Seguin-Devaux, Carole
AU - Shah, Samir R.
AU - Sharara, Ala I.
AU - Sharma, Manik
AU - Shevaldin, Anatoly
AU - Shiha, Gamal E.
AU - Sievert, William
AU - Sonderup, Mark
AU - Souliotis, Kyriakos
AU - Speiciene, Danute
AU - Sperl, Jan
AU - Stärkel, Peter
AU - Stauber, Rudolf E.
AU - Stedman, Catherine
AU - Struck, Daniel
AU - Su, Tung Hung
AU - Sypsa, Vana
AU - Tan, Soek Siam
AU - Tanaka, Junko
AU - Thompson, Alexander J.
AU - Tolmane, Ieva
AU - Tomasiewicz, Krzysztof
AU - Valantinas, Jonas
AU - Van Damme, Pierre
AU - van der Meer, Adriaan J.
AU - van Thiel, Ingo
AU - Van Vlierberghe, Hans
AU - Vince, Adriana
AU - Vogel, Wolfgang
AU - Wedemeyer, Heiner
AU - Weis, Nina
AU - Wong, Vincent WS
AU - Yaghi, Cesar
AU - Yosry, Ayman
AU - Yuen, Man fung
AU - Yunihastuti, Evy
AU - Yusuf, Aasim
AU - Zuckerman, Eli
AU - Razavi, Homie
PY - 2017/3/1
Y1 - 2017/3/1
N2 - Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.
AB - Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85012877259&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85012877259&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9
DO - 10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85012877259
VL - 2
SP - 161
EP - 176
JO - The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology
JF - The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology
SN - 2468-1253
IS - 3
ER -