Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: a modelling study

Sarah Blach; Stefan Zeuzem; Michael Manns; Ibrahim Altraif; Ann Sofi Duberg; David H. Muljono; Imam Waked; Seyed M. Alavian; Mei Hsuan Lee; Francesco Negro; Faisal Abaalkhail; Ahmed Abdou; Maheeba Abdulla; Antoine Abou Rached; Inka Aho; Ulus Akarca; Imad Al Ghazzawi; Saad Al Kaabi; Faryal Al Lawati; Khalid Al Namaani; Youssif Al Serkal; Said A. Al-Busafi; Layla Al-Dabal; Soo Aleman; Abdullah S. Alghamdi; Abdulrahman A. Aljumah; Hamad E. Al-Romaihi; Monique I. Andersson; Vic Arendt; Perttu Arkkila; Abdullah M. Assiri; Oidov Baatarkhuu; Abate Bane; Ziv Ben-Ari; Colm Bergin; Fernando Bessone; Florian Bihl; Abdul R. Bizri; Martin Blachier; Antonio J. Blasco; Carlos E.Brandão Mello; Philip Bruggmann; Cheryl R. Brunton; Filipe Calinas; Henry L.Y. Chan; Asad Chaudhry; Hugo Cheinquer; Chien Jen Chen; Rong Nan Chien; Moon Seok Choi; Peer B. Christensen; Wan Long Chuang; Vladimir Chulanov; Laura Cisneros; Mette R. Clausen; Matthew E. Cramp; Antonio Craxi; Esther A. Croes; Olav Dalgard; Jorge R. Daruich; Victor de Ledinghen; Gregory J. Dore; Manal H. El-Sayed; Gul Ergör; Gamal Esmat; Chris Estes; Karolin Falconer; Elmoubashar Farag; Maria L.G. Ferraz; Paulo R. Ferreira; Robert Flisiak; Sona Frankova; Ivane Gamkrelidze; Ed Gane; Javier García-Samaniego; Amir Ghafoor Khan; Ilias Gountas; Adrian Goldis; Magnús Gottfredsson; Jason Grebely; Michael Gschwantler; Mário Guimarães Pessôa; Jessie Gunter; Behzad Hajarizadeh; Omer Hajelssedig; Saeed Hamid; Waseem Hamoudi; Angelos Hatzakis; Sayed M. Himatt; Harald Hofer; Irena Hrstic; Yee Tak Hui; Bela Hunyady; Ramazan Idilman; Wasim Jafri; Rohani Jahis; Naveed Z. Janjua; Peter Jarčuška; Agita Jeruma; Jón G. Jonasson; Yasser Kamel; Jia Horng Kao; Sabahattin Kaymakoglu; David Kershenobich; Jawad Khamis; Young S. Kim; Loreta Kondili; Zaher Koutoubi; Mel Krajden; Henrik Krarup; Moon sing Lai; Wim Laleman; Wai cheung Lao; Daniel Lavanchy; Pablo Lázaro; Henri Leleu; Olufunmilayo Lesi; Laurentius A. Lesmana; Michael Li; Valentina Liakina; Young Suk Lim; Boris Luksic; Adam Mahomed; Matti Maimets; Mihály Makara; Abraham O. Malu; Rui T. Marinho; Paul Marotta; Stefan Mauss; Muhammad S. Memon; Maria C.Mendes Correa; Nahum Mendez-Sanchez; Shahin Merat; Ammal M. Metwally; Rosmawati Mohamed; Christophe Moreno; Fadi H. Mourad; Beat Müllhaupt; Kimberly Murphy; Helen Nde; Richard Njouom; Diana Nonkovic; Suzanne Norris; Solomon Obekpa; Stephen Oguche; Sigurður Olafsson; Marian Oltman; Ogu Omede; Casimir Omuemu; Ohene Opare-Sem; Anne L.H. Øvrehus; Shirley Owusu-Ofori; Tsendsuren S. Oyunsuren; George Papatheodoridis; Ken Pasini; Kevork M. Peltekian; Richard O. Phillips; Nikolay Pimenov; Hossein Poustchi; Nishi Prabdial-Sing; Huma Qureshi; Alnoor Ramji; Devin Razavi-Shearer; Kathryn Razavi-Shearer; Berhane Redae; Henk W. Reesink; Ezequiel Ridruejo; Sarah Robbins; Lewis R. Roberts; Stuart K. Roberts; William M. Rosenberg; Françoise Roudot-Thoraval; Stephen D. Ryder; Rifaat Safadi; Olga Sagalova; Riina Salupere; Faisal M. Sanai; Juan F.Sanchez Avila; Vivek Saraswat; Rui Sarmento-Castro; Christoph Sarrazin; Jonathan D. Schmelzer; Ivan Schréter; Carole Seguin-Devaux; Samir R. Shah; Ala I. Sharara; Manik Sharma; Anatoly Shevaldin; Gamal E. Shiha; William Sievert; Mark Sonderup; Kyriakos Souliotis; Danute Speiciene; Jan Sperl; Peter Stärkel; Rudolf E. Stauber; Catherine Stedman; Daniel Struck; Tung Hung Su; Vana Sypsa; Soek Siam Tan; Junko Tanaka; Alexander J. Thompson; Ieva Tolmane; Krzysztof Tomasiewicz; Jonas Valantinas; Pierre Van Damme; Adriaan J. van der Meer; Ingo van Thiel; Hans Van Vlierberghe; Adriana Vince; Wolfgang Vogel; Heiner Wedemeyer; Nina Weis; Vincent WS Wong; Cesar Yaghi; Ayman Yosry; Man fung Yuen; Evy Yunihastuti; Aasim Yusuf; Eli Zuckerman; Homie Razavi

doi:10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9

Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: a modelling study

Sarah Blach, Stefan Zeuzem, Michael Manns, Ibrahim Altraif, Ann Sofi Duberg, David H. Muljono, Imam Waked, Seyed M. Alavian, Mei Hsuan Lee, Francesco Negro, Faisal Abaalkhail, Ahmed Abdou, Maheeba Abdulla, Antoine Abou Rached, Inka Aho, Ulus Akarca, Imad Al Ghazzawi, Saad Al Kaabi, Faryal Al Lawati, Khalid Al NamaaniYoussif Al Serkal, Said A. Al-Busafi, Layla Al-Dabal, Soo Aleman, Abdullah S. Alghamdi, Abdulrahman A. Aljumah, Hamad E. Al-Romaihi, Monique I. Andersson, Vic Arendt, Perttu Arkkila, Abdullah M. Assiri, Oidov Baatarkhuu, Abate Bane, Ziv Ben-Ari, Colm Bergin, Fernando Bessone, Florian Bihl, Abdul R. Bizri, Martin Blachier, Antonio J. Blasco, Carlos E.Brandão Mello, Philip Bruggmann, Cheryl R. Brunton, Filipe Calinas, Henry L.Y. Chan, Asad Chaudhry, Hugo Cheinquer, Chien Jen Chen, Rong Nan Chien, Moon Seok Choi, Peer B. Christensen, Wan Long Chuang, Vladimir Chulanov, Laura Cisneros, Mette R. Clausen, Matthew E. Cramp, Antonio Craxi, Esther A. Croes, Olav Dalgard, Jorge R. Daruich, Victor de Ledinghen, Gregory J. Dore, Manal H. El-Sayed, Gul Ergör, Gamal Esmat, Chris Estes, Karolin Falconer, Elmoubashar Farag, Maria L.G. Ferraz, Paulo R. Ferreira, Robert Flisiak, Sona Frankova, Ivane Gamkrelidze, Ed Gane, Javier García-Samaniego, Amir Ghafoor Khan, Ilias Gountas, Adrian Goldis, Magnús Gottfredsson, Jason Grebely, Michael Gschwantler, Mário Guimarães Pessôa, Jessie Gunter, Behzad Hajarizadeh, Omer Hajelssedig, Saeed Hamid, Waseem Hamoudi, Angelos Hatzakis, Sayed M. Himatt, Harald Hofer, Irena Hrstic, Yee Tak Hui, Bela Hunyady, Ramazan Idilman, Wasim Jafri, Rohani Jahis, Naveed Z. Janjua, Peter Jarčuška, Agita Jeruma, Jón G. Jonasson, Yasser Kamel, Jia Horng Kao, Sabahattin Kaymakoglu, David Kershenobich, Jawad Khamis, Young S. Kim, Loreta Kondili, Zaher Koutoubi, Mel Krajden, Henrik Krarup, Moon sing Lai, Wim Laleman, Wai cheung Lao, Daniel Lavanchy, Pablo Lázaro, Henri Leleu, Olufunmilayo Lesi, Laurentius A. Lesmana, Michael Li, Valentina Liakina, Young Suk Lim, Boris Luksic, Adam Mahomed, Matti Maimets, Mihály Makara, Abraham O. Malu, Rui T. Marinho, Paul Marotta, Stefan Mauss, Muhammad S. Memon, Maria C.Mendes Correa, Nahum Mendez-Sanchez, Shahin Merat, Ammal M. Metwally, Rosmawati Mohamed, Christophe Moreno, Fadi H. Mourad, Beat Müllhaupt, Kimberly Murphy, Helen Nde, Richard Njouom, Diana Nonkovic, Suzanne Norris, Solomon Obekpa, Stephen Oguche, Sigurður Olafsson, Marian Oltman, Ogu Omede, Casimir Omuemu, Ohene Opare-Sem, Anne L.H. Øvrehus, Shirley Owusu-Ofori, Tsendsuren S. Oyunsuren, George Papatheodoridis, Ken Pasini, Kevork M. Peltekian, Richard O. Phillips, Nikolay Pimenov, Hossein Poustchi, Nishi Prabdial-Sing, Huma Qureshi, Alnoor Ramji, Devin Razavi-Shearer, Kathryn Razavi-Shearer, Berhane Redae, Henk W. Reesink, Ezequiel Ridruejo, Sarah Robbins, Lewis R. Roberts, Stuart K. Roberts, William M. Rosenberg, Françoise Roudot-Thoraval, Stephen D. Ryder, Rifaat Safadi, Olga Sagalova, Riina Salupere, Faisal M. Sanai, Juan F.Sanchez Avila, Vivek Saraswat, Rui Sarmento-Castro, Christoph Sarrazin, Jonathan D. Schmelzer, Ivan Schréter, Carole Seguin-Devaux, Samir R. Shah, Ala I. Sharara, Manik Sharma, Anatoly Shevaldin, Gamal E. Shiha, William Sievert, Mark Sonderup, Kyriakos Souliotis, Danute Speiciene, Jan Sperl, Peter Stärkel, Rudolf E. Stauber, Catherine Stedman, Daniel Struck, Tung Hung Su, Vana Sypsa, Soek Siam Tan, Junko Tanaka, Alexander J. Thompson, Ieva Tolmane, Krzysztof Tomasiewicz, Jonas Valantinas, Pierre Van Damme, Adriaan J. van der Meer, Ingo van Thiel, Hans Van Vlierberghe, Adriana Vince, Wolfgang Vogel, Heiner Wedemeyer, Nina Weis, Vincent WS Wong, Cesar Yaghi, Ayman Yosry, Man fung Yuen, Evy Yunihastuti, Aasim Yusuf, Eli Zuckerman, Homie Razavi

Medicine

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1332 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	161-176
Number of pages	16
Journal	The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology
Volume	2
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9
Publication status	Published - Mar 1 2017

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Hepatology
Gastroenterology

Access to Document

10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9

Cite this

Blach, S., Zeuzem, S., Manns, M., Altraif, I., Duberg, A. S., Muljono, D. H., Waked, I., Alavian, S. M., Lee, M. H., Negro, F., Abaalkhail, F., Abdou, A., Abdulla, M., Rached, A. A., Aho, I., Akarca, U., Al Ghazzawi, I., Al Kaabi, S., Al Lawati, F., ... Razavi, H. (2017). Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: a modelling study. The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology, 2(3), 161-176. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9

Blach, S, Zeuzem, S, Manns, M, Altraif, I, Duberg, AS, Muljono, DH, Waked, I, Alavian, SM, Lee, MH, Negro, F, Abaalkhail, F, Abdou, A, Abdulla, M, Rached, AA, Aho, I, Akarca, U, Al Ghazzawi, I, Al Kaabi, S, Al Lawati, F, Al Namaani, K, Al Serkal, Y, Al-Busafi, SA, Al-Dabal, L, Aleman, S, Alghamdi, AS, Aljumah, AA, Al-Romaihi, HE, Andersson, MI, Arendt, V, Arkkila, P, Assiri, AM, Baatarkhuu, O, Bane, A, Ben-Ari, Z, Bergin, C, Bessone, F, Bihl, F, Bizri, AR, Blachier, M, Blasco, AJ, Mello, CEB, Bruggmann, P, Brunton, CR, Calinas, F, Chan, HLY, Chaudhry, A, Cheinquer, H, Chen, CJ, Chien, RN, Choi, MS, Christensen, PB, Chuang, WL, Chulanov, V, Cisneros, L, Clausen, MR, Cramp, ME, Craxi, A, Croes, EA, Dalgard, O, Daruich, JR, de Ledinghen, V, Dore, GJ, El-Sayed, MH, Ergör, G, Esmat, G, Estes, C, Falconer, K, Farag, E, Ferraz, MLG, Ferreira, PR, Flisiak, R, Frankova, S, Gamkrelidze, I, Gane, E, García-Samaniego, J, Khan, AG, Gountas, I, Goldis, A, Gottfredsson, M, Grebely, J, Gschwantler, M, Pessôa, MG, Gunter, J, Hajarizadeh, B, Hajelssedig, O, Hamid, S, Hamoudi, W, Hatzakis, A, Himatt, SM, Hofer, H, Hrstic, I, Hui, YT, Hunyady, B, Idilman, R, Jafri, W, Jahis, R, Janjua, NZ, Jarčuška, P, Jeruma, A, Jonasson, JG, Kamel, Y, Kao, JH, Kaymakoglu, S, Kershenobich, D, Khamis, J, Kim, YS, Kondili, L, Koutoubi, Z, Krajden, M, Krarup, H, Lai, MS, Laleman, W, Lao, WC, Lavanchy, D, Lázaro, P, Leleu, H, Lesi, O, Lesmana, LA, Li, M, Liakina, V, Lim, YS, Luksic, B, Mahomed, A, Maimets, M, Makara, M, Malu, AO, Marinho, RT, Marotta, P, Mauss, S, Memon, MS, Correa, MCM, Mendez-Sanchez, N, Merat, S, Metwally, AM, Mohamed, R, Moreno, C, Mourad, FH, Müllhaupt, B, Murphy, K, Nde, H, Njouom, R, Nonkovic, D, Norris, S, Obekpa, S, Oguche, S, Olafsson, S, Oltman, M, Omede, O, Omuemu, C, Opare-Sem, O, Øvrehus, ALH, Owusu-Ofori, S, Oyunsuren, TS, Papatheodoridis, G, Pasini, K, Peltekian, KM, Phillips, RO, Pimenov, N, Poustchi, H, Prabdial-Sing, N, Qureshi, H, Ramji, A, Razavi-Shearer, D, Razavi-Shearer, K, Redae, B, Reesink, HW, Ridruejo, E, Robbins, S, Roberts, LR, Roberts, SK, Rosenberg, WM, Roudot-Thoraval, F, Ryder, SD, Safadi, R, Sagalova, O, Salupere, R, Sanai, FM, Avila, JFS, Saraswat, V, Sarmento-Castro, R, Sarrazin, C, Schmelzer, JD, Schréter, I, Seguin-Devaux, C, Shah, SR, Sharara, AI, Sharma, M, Shevaldin, A, Shiha, GE, Sievert, W, Sonderup, M, Souliotis, K, Speiciene, D, Sperl, J, Stärkel, P, Stauber, RE, Stedman, C, Struck, D, Su, TH, Sypsa, V, Tan, SS, Tanaka, J, Thompson, AJ, Tolmane, I, Tomasiewicz, K, Valantinas, J, Van Damme, P, van der Meer, AJ, van Thiel, I, Van Vlierberghe, H, Vince, A, Vogel, W, Wedemeyer, H, Weis, N, Wong, VWS, Yaghi, C, Yosry, A, Yuen, MF, Yunihastuti, E, Yusuf, A, Zuckerman, E & Razavi, H 2017, 'Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: a modelling study', The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 161-176. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9

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title = "Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: a modelling study",

abstract = "Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.",

author = "Sarah Blach and Stefan Zeuzem and Michael Manns and Ibrahim Altraif and Duberg, {Ann Sofi} and Muljono, {David H.} and Imam Waked and Alavian, {Seyed M.} and Lee, {Mei Hsuan} and Francesco Negro and Faisal Abaalkhail and Ahmed Abdou and Maheeba Abdulla and Rached, {Antoine Abou} and Inka Aho and Ulus Akarca and {Al Ghazzawi}, Imad and {Al Kaabi}, Saad and {Al Lawati}, Faryal and {Al Namaani}, Khalid and {Al Serkal}, Youssif and Al-Busafi, {Said A.} and Layla Al-Dabal and Soo Aleman and Alghamdi, {Abdullah S.} and Aljumah, {Abdulrahman A.} and Al-Romaihi, {Hamad E.} and Andersson, {Monique I.} and Vic Arendt and Perttu Arkkila and Assiri, {Abdullah M.} and Oidov Baatarkhuu and Abate Bane and Ziv Ben-Ari and Colm Bergin and Fernando Bessone and Florian Bihl and Bizri, {Abdul R.} and Martin Blachier and Blasco, {Antonio J.} and Mello, {Carlos E.Brand{\~a}o} and Philip Bruggmann and Brunton, {Cheryl R.} and Filipe Calinas and Chan, {Henry L.Y.} and Asad Chaudhry and Hugo Cheinquer and Chen, {Chien Jen} and Chien, {Rong Nan} and Choi, {Moon Seok} and Christensen, {Peer B.} and Chuang, {Wan Long} and Vladimir Chulanov and Laura Cisneros and Clausen, {Mette R.} and Cramp, {Matthew E.} and Antonio Craxi and Croes, {Esther A.} and Olav Dalgard and Daruich, {Jorge R.} and {de Ledinghen}, Victor and Dore, {Gregory J.} and El-Sayed, {Manal H.} and Gul Erg{\"o}r and Gamal Esmat and Chris Estes and Karolin Falconer and Elmoubashar Farag and Ferraz, {Maria L.G.} and Ferreira, {Paulo R.} and Robert Flisiak and Sona Frankova and Ivane Gamkrelidze and Ed Gane and Javier Garc{\'i}a-Samaniego and Khan, {Amir Ghafoor} and Ilias Gountas and Adrian Goldis and Magn{\'u}s Gottfredsson and Jason Grebely and Michael Gschwantler and Pess{\^o}a, {M{\'a}rio Guimar{\~a}es} and Jessie Gunter and Behzad Hajarizadeh and Omer Hajelssedig and Saeed Hamid and Waseem Hamoudi and Angelos Hatzakis and Himatt, {Sayed M.} and Harald Hofer and Irena Hrstic and Hui, {Yee Tak} and Bela Hunyady and Ramazan Idilman and Wasim Jafri and Rohani Jahis and Janjua, {Naveed Z.} and Peter Jar{\v c}u{\v s}ka and Agita Jeruma and Jonasson, {J{\'o}n G.} and Yasser Kamel and Kao, {Jia Horng} and Sabahattin Kaymakoglu and David Kershenobich and Jawad Khamis and Kim, {Young S.} and Loreta Kondili and Zaher Koutoubi and Mel Krajden and Henrik Krarup and Lai, {Moon sing} and Wim Laleman and Lao, {Wai cheung} and Daniel Lavanchy and Pablo L{\'a}zaro and Henri Leleu and Olufunmilayo Lesi and Lesmana, {Laurentius A.} and Michael Li and Valentina Liakina and Lim, {Young Suk} and Boris Luksic and Adam Mahomed and Matti Maimets and Mih{\'a}ly Makara and Malu, {Abraham O.} and Marinho, {Rui T.} and Paul Marotta and Stefan Mauss and Memon, {Muhammad S.} and Correa, {Maria C.Mendes} and Nahum Mendez-Sanchez and Shahin Merat and Metwally, {Ammal M.} and Rosmawati Mohamed and Christophe Moreno and Mourad, {Fadi H.} and Beat M{\"u}llhaupt and Kimberly Murphy and Helen Nde and Richard Njouom and Diana Nonkovic and Suzanne Norris and Solomon Obekpa and Stephen Oguche and Sigur{\dh}ur Olafsson and Marian Oltman and Ogu Omede and Casimir Omuemu and Ohene Opare-Sem and {\O}vrehus, {Anne L.H.} and Shirley Owusu-Ofori and Oyunsuren, {Tsendsuren S.} and George Papatheodoridis and Ken Pasini and Peltekian, {Kevork M.} and Phillips, {Richard O.} and Nikolay Pimenov and Hossein Poustchi and Nishi Prabdial-Sing and Huma Qureshi and Alnoor Ramji and Devin Razavi-Shearer and Kathryn Razavi-Shearer and Berhane Redae and Reesink, {Henk W.} and Ezequiel Ridruejo and Sarah Robbins and Roberts, {Lewis R.} and Roberts, {Stuart K.} and Rosenberg, {William M.} and Fran{\c c}oise Roudot-Thoraval and Ryder, {Stephen D.} and Rifaat Safadi and Olga Sagalova and Riina Salupere and Sanai, {Faisal M.} and Avila, {Juan F.Sanchez} and Vivek Saraswat and Rui Sarmento-Castro and Christoph Sarrazin and Schmelzer, {Jonathan D.} and Ivan Schr{\'e}ter and Carole Seguin-Devaux and Shah, {Samir R.} and Sharara, {Ala I.} and Manik Sharma and Anatoly Shevaldin and Shiha, {Gamal E.} and William Sievert and Mark Sonderup and Kyriakos Souliotis and Danute Speiciene and Jan Sperl and Peter St{\"a}rkel and Stauber, {Rudolf E.} and Catherine Stedman and Daniel Struck and Su, {Tung Hung} and Vana Sypsa and Tan, {Soek Siam} and Junko Tanaka and Thompson, {Alexander J.} and Ieva Tolmane and Krzysztof Tomasiewicz and Jonas Valantinas and {Van Damme}, Pierre and {van der Meer}, {Adriaan J.} and {van Thiel}, Ingo and {Van Vlierberghe}, Hans and Adriana Vince and Wolfgang Vogel and Heiner Wedemeyer and Nina Weis and Wong, {Vincent WS} and Cesar Yaghi and Ayman Yosry and Yuen, {Man fung} and Evy Yunihastuti and Aasim Yusuf and Eli Zuckerman and Homie Razavi",

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month = mar,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9",

language = "English",

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pages = "161--176",

journal = "The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology",

issn = "2468-1253",

publisher = "Elsevier Limited",

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}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015

T2 - a modelling study

AU - Blach, Sarah

AU - Zeuzem, Stefan

AU - Manns, Michael

AU - Altraif, Ibrahim

AU - Duberg, Ann Sofi

AU - Muljono, David H.

AU - Waked, Imam

AU - Alavian, Seyed M.

AU - Lee, Mei Hsuan

AU - Negro, Francesco

AU - Abaalkhail, Faisal

AU - Abdou, Ahmed

AU - Abdulla, Maheeba

AU - Rached, Antoine Abou

AU - Aho, Inka

AU - Akarca, Ulus

AU - Al Ghazzawi, Imad

AU - Al Kaabi, Saad

AU - Al Lawati, Faryal

AU - Al Namaani, Khalid

AU - Al Serkal, Youssif

AU - Al-Busafi, Said A.

AU - Al-Dabal, Layla

AU - Aleman, Soo

AU - Alghamdi, Abdullah S.

AU - Aljumah, Abdulrahman A.

AU - Al-Romaihi, Hamad E.

AU - Andersson, Monique I.

AU - Arendt, Vic

AU - Arkkila, Perttu

AU - Assiri, Abdullah M.

AU - Baatarkhuu, Oidov

AU - Bane, Abate

AU - Ben-Ari, Ziv

AU - Bergin, Colm

AU - Bessone, Fernando

AU - Bihl, Florian

AU - Bizri, Abdul R.

AU - Blachier, Martin

AU - Blasco, Antonio J.

AU - Mello, Carlos E.Brandão

AU - Bruggmann, Philip

AU - Brunton, Cheryl R.

AU - Calinas, Filipe

AU - Chan, Henry L.Y.

AU - Chaudhry, Asad

AU - Cheinquer, Hugo

AU - Chen, Chien Jen

AU - Chien, Rong Nan

AU - Choi, Moon Seok

AU - Christensen, Peer B.

AU - Chuang, Wan Long

AU - Chulanov, Vladimir

AU - Cisneros, Laura

AU - Clausen, Mette R.

AU - Cramp, Matthew E.

AU - Craxi, Antonio

AU - Croes, Esther A.

AU - Dalgard, Olav

AU - Daruich, Jorge R.

AU - de Ledinghen, Victor

AU - Dore, Gregory J.

AU - El-Sayed, Manal H.

AU - Ergör, Gul

AU - Esmat, Gamal

AU - Estes, Chris

AU - Falconer, Karolin

AU - Farag, Elmoubashar

AU - Ferraz, Maria L.G.

AU - Ferreira, Paulo R.

AU - Flisiak, Robert

AU - Frankova, Sona

AU - Gamkrelidze, Ivane

AU - Gane, Ed

AU - García-Samaniego, Javier

AU - Khan, Amir Ghafoor

AU - Gountas, Ilias

AU - Goldis, Adrian

AU - Gottfredsson, Magnús

AU - Grebely, Jason

AU - Gschwantler, Michael

AU - Pessôa, Mário Guimarães

AU - Gunter, Jessie

AU - Hajarizadeh, Behzad

AU - Hajelssedig, Omer

AU - Hamid, Saeed

AU - Hamoudi, Waseem

AU - Hatzakis, Angelos

AU - Himatt, Sayed M.

AU - Hofer, Harald

AU - Hrstic, Irena

AU - Hui, Yee Tak

AU - Hunyady, Bela

AU - Idilman, Ramazan

AU - Jafri, Wasim

AU - Jahis, Rohani

AU - Janjua, Naveed Z.

AU - Jarčuška, Peter

AU - Jeruma, Agita

AU - Jonasson, Jón G.

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AU - Valantinas, Jonas

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AU - Vogel, Wolfgang

AU - Wedemeyer, Heiner

AU - Weis, Nina

AU - Wong, Vincent WS

AU - Yaghi, Cesar

AU - Yosry, Ayman

AU - Yuen, Man fung

AU - Yunihastuti, Evy

AU - Yusuf, Aasim

AU - Zuckerman, Eli

AU - Razavi, Homie

PY - 2017/3/1

Y1 - 2017/3/1

N2 - Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.

AB - Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.

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U2 - 10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9

DO - 10.1016/S2468-1253(16)30181-9

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85012877259

VL - 2

SP - 161

EP - 176

JO - The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology

JF - The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology

SN - 2468-1253

IS - 3

ER -

Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: a modelling study

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