Earthquake risk assessment for the building inventory of Muscat, Sultanate of Oman

Ufuk Hancilar*, Issa El-Hussain, Karin Sesetyan, Ahmed Deif, Eser Cakti, Ghazi Al-Rawas, Erdal Safak, Khalifa Al-Jabri

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)


Earthquake risk can be quantified in terms of the estimated numbers of human casualties and of damaged buildings as well as the monetary losses. The information required for the assessment of earthquake risk in a given region includes the expected level of ground shaking intensity (i.e., the seismic hazard), inventory data for building stock at risk, identification of predominant building typologies and of their vulnerability characteristics, and spatial distribution of number of inhabitants. This study presents an indicative assessment of earthquake risk associated with the building stock in Muscat, the capital city of the Sultanate of Oman. For this purpose, building inventory and demographic data for the city are compiled in GIS environment. The buildings are classified to identify their damageability/vulnerability characteristics, and predominant building typologies are determined. For the estimation of casualties, Muscat population data are further analyzed to calculate number of occupants in the exposed building stock. Spectral acceleration–displacement based damage estimation methodology is implemented for risk calculations. Site-specific ground motions in terms spectral accelerations obtained from the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for 475- and 2475-year return periods are considered for the representation of earthquake demand in damage analyses. Assessment of damage to buildings and estimation of casualties are obtained using analytical fragility relationships and building damage related casualty–vulnerability models, respectively. Earthquake risk maps illustrating the spatial distribution of number of damaged buildings at different damage states are presented for the considered levels of seismic hazard.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1419-1434
Number of pages16
JournalNatural Hazards
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Sept 1 2018


  • Casualty estimation
  • Earthquake risk
  • Grid-based building inventory and demographic data
  • Spectral acceleration–displacement based damage assessment

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)


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