Does the Federal Reserve have Private Information about its Future Actions?

Bedri Kamil Onur Taş*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate about the existence and source of asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public by examining the federal funds rate forecasts. It compares the Federal Reserve federal funds rate forecasts with the predictions of alternative forecasting models and forecasts from the futures market for federal funds. The results show that the Federal Reserve has superior information about its own future policy actions, the future federal funds rate. The results are robust to alternative specifications.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)498-517
Number of pages20
JournalEconomica
Volume83
Issue number331
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 1 2016
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics

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