Development of demand forecast model for the transmission system master plan of Oman (2014-2030)

H. Al-Riyami, A. Al-Busaidi, A. Al-Nadabi, M. Al-Siyabi, M. Al-Abri, Z. Al-Rawahi, J. Dubois, V. Lambillon, S. Mirza, A. Bastens, O. H. Abdalla

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to present the methodology, approach and results of the demand forecast analysis used in the Transmission Master Plan of Oman 2014-2030. Oman Electricity Transmission Company and Tractebel Engineering analyze the challenges and review the existing load demand forecast studies used in Oman. Different studies analyze load forecasting at short to medium term. A spatialization of the long term load forecast is required in the Transmission Master Plan (2014-2030) of Oman in order to correctly address the transmission expansion plan. Several approaches are proposed to review and challenge existing studies and to spatialize the load demand forecast. The approaches are called global and areabased forecasting methods. Each approach is complimentary and allows to cross-check the adequacy of the method to the peculiarities of the local load demand and the accuracy of the data available. The global method allows linking the electricity consumption to the various economic indicators through mathematical regression relating the electrical energy consumption to socio-economic indicators. The area-based based method aims to spatialize the load forecast taking into account the consumption at regional level and the local characteristics of each area in the Sultanate. The results of the load demand forecast analysis defined the area with very high growth, the amount of generation required in the firm of the Transmission Master Plan and accordingly the least cost transmission network development plan.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2015 IEEE 8th GCC Conference and Exhibition, GCCCE 2015
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9781479984220
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 12 2015
Externally publishedYes
Event2015 IEEE 8th GCC Conference and Exhibition, GCCCE 2015 - Muscat, Oman
Duration: Feb 1 2015Feb 4 2015

Publication series

Name2015 IEEE 8th GCC Conference and Exhibition, GCCCE 2015

Other

Other2015 IEEE 8th GCC Conference and Exhibition, GCCCE 2015
Country/TerritoryOman
CityMuscat
Period2/1/152/4/15

Keywords

  • Demand Forecast
  • Long-Term Planning
  • Master Plan
  • Transmission System

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy(all)
  • Engineering(all)
  • Computer Science(all)

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