TY - JOUR
T1 - Development and surrogate-based calibration of a CO2 reservoir model
AU - Chen, Mingjie
AU - Abdalla, Osman A.
AU - Izady, Azizallah
AU - Reza Nikoo, Mohammad
AU - Al-Maktoumi, Ali
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2020/7/1
Y1 - 2020/7/1
N2 - Simulation-optimization framework is a widely used approach for
numerical model calibrations, though its primary difficulty is its
high-demand of computational efforts. In this study, Bagging MARS
(BMARS) adapted from Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS)
algorithm, is used to construct the surrogate of a three-dimensional
CO2 reservoir model, which is developed to simulate
CO2 injection and migration in a fault-compartmentalized
underground reservoir. The BMARS surrogate model is then used in model
calibration to estimate specified reservoir model input parameters
efficiently. The results demonstrate that the BMARS model can improve
fitting stability and predictive accuracy against the ordinary MARS
model. Parameter sensitivity analysis, which is efficiently conducted
using the BMARS model, suggest that permeability of Fault#10 and caprock
dominate the pressure buildup in this fault-compartmentalized reservoir.
Hence priority should be given to investment in estimating these two
reservoir properties. Overpressure propagation and CO2
migration in the reservoir responding to three years of CO2
injection are also analyzed using the calibrated model. The calibrated
water-CO2 flow model could be a useful tool to evaluate the
future operation and risk assessment of the reservoir. The results
comparison and sensitivity analysis demonstrated the proposed
BMARS-based simulation-optimization framework is an efficient and
accurate model calibration approach.
AB - Simulation-optimization framework is a widely used approach for
numerical model calibrations, though its primary difficulty is its
high-demand of computational efforts. In this study, Bagging MARS
(BMARS) adapted from Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS)
algorithm, is used to construct the surrogate of a three-dimensional
CO2 reservoir model, which is developed to simulate
CO2 injection and migration in a fault-compartmentalized
underground reservoir. The BMARS surrogate model is then used in model
calibration to estimate specified reservoir model input parameters
efficiently. The results demonstrate that the BMARS model can improve
fitting stability and predictive accuracy against the ordinary MARS
model. Parameter sensitivity analysis, which is efficiently conducted
using the BMARS model, suggest that permeability of Fault#10 and caprock
dominate the pressure buildup in this fault-compartmentalized reservoir.
Hence priority should be given to investment in estimating these two
reservoir properties. Overpressure propagation and CO2
migration in the reservoir responding to three years of CO2
injection are also analyzed using the calibrated model. The calibrated
water-CO2 flow model could be a useful tool to evaluate the
future operation and risk assessment of the reservoir. The results
comparison and sensitivity analysis demonstrated the proposed
BMARS-based simulation-optimization framework is an efficient and
accurate model calibration approach.
KW - Reservoir model
KW - Calibration
KW - BMARS
KW - Surrogate model
KW - CO2 sequestration
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U2 - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124798
DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124798
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85081261603
SN - 0022-1694
VL - 586
SP - 124798
JO - Journal of Hydrology
JF - Journal of Hydrology
M1 - 124798
ER -