TY - JOUR
T1 - COVID-19 epidemic monitoring after non-pharmaceutical interventions
T2 - The use of time-varying reproduction number in a country with a large migrant population
AU - Al Wahaibi, Adil
AU - Al Manji, Abdullah
AU - Al Maani, Amal
AU - Al Rawahi, Bader
AU - Al Harthy, Khalid
AU - Alyaquobi, Fatma
AU - Al-Jardani, Amina
AU - Petersen, Eskild
AU - Al Abri, Seif
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was funded by the Ministry of Health’s Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control , as part of its operational research.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Author(s)
PY - 2020/10
Y1 - 2020/10
N2 - Background: COVID-19’s emergence carries with it many uncertainties and challenges, including strategies to manage the epidemic. Oman has implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the impact of COVID-19. However, responses to NPIs may be different across different populations within a country with a large number of migrants, such as Oman. This study investigated the different responses to NPIs, and assessed the use of the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) to monitor them. Methods: Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 data for Oman, from February 24 to June 3, 2020, were used alongside demographic and epidemiological information. Data were arranged into pairs of infector–infectee, and two main libraries of R software were used to estimate reproductive number (Rt). Rt was calculated for both Omanis and non-Omanis. Findings: A total of 13,538 cases were included, 44.9% of which were Omanis. Among all these cases we identified 2769 infector–infectee pairs for calculating Rt. There was a sharp drop in Rt from 3.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8–4.6) in mid-March to 1.4 (95% CI 1.2–1.7) in late March in response to NPIs. Rt then decreased further to 1.2 (95% CI 1.1–1.3) in late April after which it rose, corresponding to the easing of NPIs. Comparing the two groups, the response to major public health controls was more evident in Omanis in reducing Rt to 1.09 (95% CI 0.84–1.3) by the end of March. Interpretation: Use of real-time estimation of Rt allowed us to follow the effects of NPIs. The migrant population responded differently than the Omani population.
AB - Background: COVID-19’s emergence carries with it many uncertainties and challenges, including strategies to manage the epidemic. Oman has implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the impact of COVID-19. However, responses to NPIs may be different across different populations within a country with a large number of migrants, such as Oman. This study investigated the different responses to NPIs, and assessed the use of the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) to monitor them. Methods: Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 data for Oman, from February 24 to June 3, 2020, were used alongside demographic and epidemiological information. Data were arranged into pairs of infector–infectee, and two main libraries of R software were used to estimate reproductive number (Rt). Rt was calculated for both Omanis and non-Omanis. Findings: A total of 13,538 cases were included, 44.9% of which were Omanis. Among all these cases we identified 2769 infector–infectee pairs for calculating Rt. There was a sharp drop in Rt from 3.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8–4.6) in mid-March to 1.4 (95% CI 1.2–1.7) in late March in response to NPIs. Rt then decreased further to 1.2 (95% CI 1.1–1.3) in late April after which it rose, corresponding to the easing of NPIs. Comparing the two groups, the response to major public health controls was more evident in Omanis in reducing Rt to 1.09 (95% CI 0.84–1.3) by the end of March. Interpretation: Use of real-time estimation of Rt allowed us to follow the effects of NPIs. The migrant population responded differently than the Omani population.
KW - COVID-19 epidemiology
KW - Public health intervention
KW - Reproductive number
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U2 - 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.039
DO - 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.039
M3 - Article
C2 - 32829052
AN - SCOPUS:85090841935
SN - 1201-9712
VL - 99
SP - 466
EP - 472
JO - International Journal of Infectious Diseases
JF - International Journal of Infectious Diseases
ER -
