Characterization of Seismic Source Zones in the Gulf of Aden Region

The Gulf of Aden is one of the active tectonic elements encompassing the Arabian Plate, representing a potential hazard for the southern parts of Oman and Yemen. This calls for an improved seismic source model for the Gulf, which is crucial for any future seismic hazard assessment regardless of the adopted approach. The developed model is delineated based on a statistical analysis of an updated earthquake catalogue, tectonic setting, and stress regime in the Gulf of Aden. Kernel density estimation (KDE) is applied to obtain an approximation of the probability density function that governs the statistical distribution of earthquakes in the area. The spatial distribution of earthquake and seismic moment kernel densities are calculated to contribute to the modeling of the seismic source. Statistical methods were then applied for estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude (M_max) and the earthquake recurrence parameters [annual rate of earthquakes (λ) and β-value] for each delineated seismic zone. The seismotectonic features and the results of statistical analysis led to the delineation of four seismic sources with their essential parameters to produce a more reliable seismic hazard analysis.