Anticipative management for coral reef ecosystem services in the 21st century

Alice Rogers, Alastair R. Harborne, Christopher J. Brown, Yves Marie Bozec, Carolina Castro, Iliana Chollett, Karlo Hock, Cheryl A. Knowland, Alyssa Marshell, Juan C. Ortiz, Tries Razak, George Roff, Jimena Samper-Villarreal, Megan I. Saunders, Nicholas H. Wolff, Peter J. Mumby

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

49 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Under projections of global climate change and other stressors, significant changes in the ecology, structure and function of coral reefs are predicted. Current management strategies tend to look to the past to set goals, focusing on halting declines and restoring baseline conditions. Here, we explore a complementary approach to decision making that is based on the anticipation of future changes in ecosystem state, function and services. Reviewing the existing literature and utilizing a scenario planning approach, we explore how the structure of coral reef communities might change in the future in response to global climate change and overfishing. We incorporate uncertainties in our predictions by considering heterogeneity in reef types in relation to structural complexity and primary productivity. We examine 14 ecosystem services provided by reefs, and rate their sensitivity to a range of future scenarios and management options. Our predictions suggest that the efficacy of management is highly dependent on biophysical characteristics and reef state. Reserves are currently widely used and are predicted to remain effective for reefs with high structural complexity. However, when complexity is lost, maximizing service provision requires a broader portfolio of management approaches, including the provision of artificial complexity, coral restoration, fish aggregation devices and herbivore management. Increased use of such management tools will require capacity building and technique refinement and we therefore conclude that diversification of our management toolbox should be considered urgently to prepare for the challenges of managing reefs into the 21st century.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)504-514
Number of pages11
JournalGlobal Change Biology
Volume21
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 1 2015

Fingerprint

Coral Reefs
Reefs
Climate Change
twenty first century
ecosystem service
Ecosystems
coral reef
Ecosystem
Capacity Building
Anthozoa
Herbivory
reef
Ecology
Uncertainty
Decision Making
Fishes
Equipment and Supplies
Climate change
global climate
baseline conditions

Keywords

  • Coral reefs
  • Degraded ecosystems
  • Ecosystem function
  • Ecosystem services
  • Habitat complexity
  • Marine reserve

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology
  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Rogers, A., Harborne, A. R., Brown, C. J., Bozec, Y. M., Castro, C., Chollett, I., ... Mumby, P. J. (2015). Anticipative management for coral reef ecosystem services in the 21st century. Global Change Biology, 21(2), 504-514. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12725

Anticipative management for coral reef ecosystem services in the 21st century. / Rogers, Alice; Harborne, Alastair R.; Brown, Christopher J.; Bozec, Yves Marie; Castro, Carolina; Chollett, Iliana; Hock, Karlo; Knowland, Cheryl A.; Marshell, Alyssa; Ortiz, Juan C.; Razak, Tries; Roff, George; Samper-Villarreal, Jimena; Saunders, Megan I.; Wolff, Nicholas H.; Mumby, Peter J.

In: Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, No. 2, 01.02.2015, p. 504-514.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Rogers, A, Harborne, AR, Brown, CJ, Bozec, YM, Castro, C, Chollett, I, Hock, K, Knowland, CA, Marshell, A, Ortiz, JC, Razak, T, Roff, G, Samper-Villarreal, J, Saunders, MI, Wolff, NH & Mumby, PJ 2015, 'Anticipative management for coral reef ecosystem services in the 21st century', Global Change Biology, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 504-514. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12725
Rogers A, Harborne AR, Brown CJ, Bozec YM, Castro C, Chollett I et al. Anticipative management for coral reef ecosystem services in the 21st century. Global Change Biology. 2015 Feb 1;21(2):504-514. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12725
Rogers, Alice ; Harborne, Alastair R. ; Brown, Christopher J. ; Bozec, Yves Marie ; Castro, Carolina ; Chollett, Iliana ; Hock, Karlo ; Knowland, Cheryl A. ; Marshell, Alyssa ; Ortiz, Juan C. ; Razak, Tries ; Roff, George ; Samper-Villarreal, Jimena ; Saunders, Megan I. ; Wolff, Nicholas H. ; Mumby, Peter J. / Anticipative management for coral reef ecosystem services in the 21st century. In: Global Change Biology. 2015 ; Vol. 21, No. 2. pp. 504-514.
@article{35a0b91469cd4e8ca04b102c1b985b6b,
title = "Anticipative management for coral reef ecosystem services in the 21st century",
abstract = "Under projections of global climate change and other stressors, significant changes in the ecology, structure and function of coral reefs are predicted. Current management strategies tend to look to the past to set goals, focusing on halting declines and restoring baseline conditions. Here, we explore a complementary approach to decision making that is based on the anticipation of future changes in ecosystem state, function and services. Reviewing the existing literature and utilizing a scenario planning approach, we explore how the structure of coral reef communities might change in the future in response to global climate change and overfishing. We incorporate uncertainties in our predictions by considering heterogeneity in reef types in relation to structural complexity and primary productivity. We examine 14 ecosystem services provided by reefs, and rate their sensitivity to a range of future scenarios and management options. Our predictions suggest that the efficacy of management is highly dependent on biophysical characteristics and reef state. Reserves are currently widely used and are predicted to remain effective for reefs with high structural complexity. However, when complexity is lost, maximizing service provision requires a broader portfolio of management approaches, including the provision of artificial complexity, coral restoration, fish aggregation devices and herbivore management. Increased use of such management tools will require capacity building and technique refinement and we therefore conclude that diversification of our management toolbox should be considered urgently to prepare for the challenges of managing reefs into the 21st century.",
keywords = "Coral reefs, Degraded ecosystems, Ecosystem function, Ecosystem services, Habitat complexity, Marine reserve",
author = "Alice Rogers and Harborne, {Alastair R.} and Brown, {Christopher J.} and Bozec, {Yves Marie} and Carolina Castro and Iliana Chollett and Karlo Hock and Knowland, {Cheryl A.} and Alyssa Marshell and Ortiz, {Juan C.} and Tries Razak and George Roff and Jimena Samper-Villarreal and Saunders, {Megan I.} and Wolff, {Nicholas H.} and Mumby, {Peter J.}",
year = "2015",
month = "2",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1111/gcb.12725",
language = "English",
volume = "21",
pages = "504--514",
journal = "Global Change Biology",
issn = "1354-1013",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Anticipative management for coral reef ecosystem services in the 21st century

AU - Rogers, Alice

AU - Harborne, Alastair R.

AU - Brown, Christopher J.

AU - Bozec, Yves Marie

AU - Castro, Carolina

AU - Chollett, Iliana

AU - Hock, Karlo

AU - Knowland, Cheryl A.

AU - Marshell, Alyssa

AU - Ortiz, Juan C.

AU - Razak, Tries

AU - Roff, George

AU - Samper-Villarreal, Jimena

AU - Saunders, Megan I.

AU - Wolff, Nicholas H.

AU - Mumby, Peter J.

PY - 2015/2/1

Y1 - 2015/2/1

N2 - Under projections of global climate change and other stressors, significant changes in the ecology, structure and function of coral reefs are predicted. Current management strategies tend to look to the past to set goals, focusing on halting declines and restoring baseline conditions. Here, we explore a complementary approach to decision making that is based on the anticipation of future changes in ecosystem state, function and services. Reviewing the existing literature and utilizing a scenario planning approach, we explore how the structure of coral reef communities might change in the future in response to global climate change and overfishing. We incorporate uncertainties in our predictions by considering heterogeneity in reef types in relation to structural complexity and primary productivity. We examine 14 ecosystem services provided by reefs, and rate their sensitivity to a range of future scenarios and management options. Our predictions suggest that the efficacy of management is highly dependent on biophysical characteristics and reef state. Reserves are currently widely used and are predicted to remain effective for reefs with high structural complexity. However, when complexity is lost, maximizing service provision requires a broader portfolio of management approaches, including the provision of artificial complexity, coral restoration, fish aggregation devices and herbivore management. Increased use of such management tools will require capacity building and technique refinement and we therefore conclude that diversification of our management toolbox should be considered urgently to prepare for the challenges of managing reefs into the 21st century.

AB - Under projections of global climate change and other stressors, significant changes in the ecology, structure and function of coral reefs are predicted. Current management strategies tend to look to the past to set goals, focusing on halting declines and restoring baseline conditions. Here, we explore a complementary approach to decision making that is based on the anticipation of future changes in ecosystem state, function and services. Reviewing the existing literature and utilizing a scenario planning approach, we explore how the structure of coral reef communities might change in the future in response to global climate change and overfishing. We incorporate uncertainties in our predictions by considering heterogeneity in reef types in relation to structural complexity and primary productivity. We examine 14 ecosystem services provided by reefs, and rate their sensitivity to a range of future scenarios and management options. Our predictions suggest that the efficacy of management is highly dependent on biophysical characteristics and reef state. Reserves are currently widely used and are predicted to remain effective for reefs with high structural complexity. However, when complexity is lost, maximizing service provision requires a broader portfolio of management approaches, including the provision of artificial complexity, coral restoration, fish aggregation devices and herbivore management. Increased use of such management tools will require capacity building and technique refinement and we therefore conclude that diversification of our management toolbox should be considered urgently to prepare for the challenges of managing reefs into the 21st century.

KW - Coral reefs

KW - Degraded ecosystems

KW - Ecosystem function

KW - Ecosystem services

KW - Habitat complexity

KW - Marine reserve

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84923164159&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84923164159&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.12725

DO - 10.1111/gcb.12725

M3 - Article

VL - 21

SP - 504

EP - 514

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

SN - 1354-1013

IS - 2

ER -