A time series analysis of causality between tourist arrivals and climatic effects for nature-based tourism destinations: evidence from Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan: evidence from Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

Do tourist arrivals affect the climate of the destination or is it the climatic conditions that influence tourist decisions to visit a destination? These questions merit special attention for the nature-based and weather-dependent livelihoods in the mountainous regions of South Asia. Communities in these regions, on the one hand, are vulnerable to climatic change and rely on, on the other hand, income from tourism for their livelihoods. This research specifically examines whether a large number of temporary visitors to mountainous regions, which are otherwise isolated from urban settlements, contribute to the change in climate. To capture the changes in climate, we have taken four variables: temperature, rainfall, sunshine and humidity. Tourist arrival is recorded as total annual temporary tourists to the area annually for the years 2000–2017. Using an ARDL bound test method to co-integration and Granger causality test on time series data, this research empirically examines the relationships between tourism and climate change. The findings suggest that indicators like sunshine and temperature have significant long-run and short-run relation with tourist arrival. Likewise, results suggest bidirectional causality between tourists’ inflow and temperature, unidirectional causality toward tourist arrivals from sunshine and unidirectional causality from rain to tourist inflow. Humidity and tourist inflow are causality independent.