The Impact of Mobility Restriction Strategies in the Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Modelling the Relation between COVID-19 Health and Community Mobility Data

BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), particularly mobility restrictions, are mainstay measures for the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. We evaluated the effects of Oman's mobility restriction strategies to highlight their efficacy in controlling the pandemic.

METHODS: Accessible national data of daily admissions and deaths were collected from 1 April 2020 to 22 May 2021. Google Community Mobility Report (CMR) data were downloaded for the same period. Among six CMR categories, three were used and reduced to one index-the community mobility index (CMI). We used a generalised linear model with a negative binomial distribution combined with a non-linear distributed lag model to investigate the short-term effects of CMI on the number of admitted PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, controlling for public holidays, day of the week, and Eid/Ramadan days.

RESULTS: We demonstrated the feasibility of using CMRs in the evaluation and monitoring of different NPIs, particularly those related to movement restriction. The best movement restriction strategy was a curfew from 7 p.m. to 5 a.m. (level 3 of CMI = 8), which had a total reduction of 35% (95% confidence interval (CI); 25-44%) in new COVID-19 admissions in the following two weeks, and a fatality reduction in the following four weeks by 52% (95% CI; 11-75%).

CONCLUSION: Evening lockdown significantly affected the course of the pandemic in Oman which lines up with similar studies throughout the world.