Is performance in pre-clinical assessment a good predictor of the final Doctor of Medicine grade?

Objectives: To investigate if any correlation exists between students' grades on their final doctor of Medicine (MD) assessment and their overall preclinical grade point average (GPA) and its component parts. Method: Student data available from the Deanship of Admissions and Registration were analyzed. Pearson correlation coefficient was obtained to assess the degree of linear relationship between performance in the preclinical and the MD assessment of 529 students who graduated from the College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Sultan Qaboos University, Al-Khoud, Oman from June 1998 to June 2005. Simple and multiple regression analyses were performed to evaluate individual and combined impact of the preclinical courses' grades on MD grades. Results: Preclinical GPA correlated highly with MD GPA (r=0.641). The science component taught early in the preclinical phase correlated more strongly (r=0.457) than student electives (r=0.246). This correlation was better in the "good" English group. Students' performance, however, was best in electives, but worst in English. Most students who had low MD GPA (<2.0) had also preclinical and science GPA of <2.5. The students with low GPA were found to spend longer in the medical program. Conclusion: Restricting progression to the clinical phase to those students whose preclinical GPA is ≥2.5, and limiting the credit hour requirement of electives by the College seems to be justified.