Geospatial modelling of tropical cyclone risks to the southern Oman coasts

Tropical cyclones are among the most destructive natural phenomena in the world. The effects of cyclones on coastal areas include the loss of lives, property damage, and infrastructure destruction. As a cyclone-prone area, Dhofar Governorate in Oman is regularly hit by tropical cyclones, of which the last was Mekunu in May 2018. In southern Oman, a vast majority of the population and infrastructure is concentrated along the coast of the Arabian Sea, and an explicit spatial assessment is essential to create the maps of risk indices and to identify the areas of relative high cyclone risks. In this research, we aimed to develop a geospatial modelling approach to quantify the spatial variations of cyclone risk impacts across all the administrative zones of Dhofar Governorate. Three major components, namely vulnerability and exposure, hazard, and mitigation, consisting of 14 spatial criteria were incorporated in the analysis at the local scale. A spatial layer was generated for each criterion as well as a calculated weighted score using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) overlay techniques. An individual map for each risk component was produced, and the risk index was calculated on the basis of the vulnerability, hazard, and capacity indices. The findings indicated that vulnerable populations and highly exposed areas to severe cyclone impacts were distributed along the coastlines of the southern (Salalah, Taqah, and Mirbat) and southwest (Rakhyut and Dalkut) wilayats. The present study has potential and valuable policy implications for planners and decision makers, as well as serves as a robust baseline for developing national risk mitigation strategies which aim to diminish and absorb cyclone disaster impacts.