TY - GEN
T1 - A use of global climate model output for site-specific assessment of climate change impacts on groundwater temperature
AU - Gunawardhana, Luminda
AU - Kazama, So
PY - 2009
Y1 - 2009
N2 - Spatial mismatch of coarse resolution projections in Global Climate Models (GCMs) is a major constraint in site-specific climate impact predictions. The objectives of this study were to: (1) statistically downscale MRI monthly data at coarse resolution grid scale to station scale in the Sendai plain, Japan using transfer function method, and (2) estimate the potential range of groundwater temperature change in future from different GCM scenarios. Field observations of groundwater temperature and groundwater level were made in five observation wells. A water budget technique was applied to account for the changes of groundwater recharge in the future. A one-dimensional heat transport model was calibrated to the present day and used with the downscaled GCM results and potential recharge variations for predicting aquifer temperature change. The strongest effects were estimated that probably increase surface air temperature by 3.3°C and annual precipitation by 82 mm (7% from 1967 to 2006) during 2060-2099. The overall results show that the aquifer temperature, under the changed ground surface temperature and precipitation, will increase in a range of 1.1 to 2.6°C.
AB - Spatial mismatch of coarse resolution projections in Global Climate Models (GCMs) is a major constraint in site-specific climate impact predictions. The objectives of this study were to: (1) statistically downscale MRI monthly data at coarse resolution grid scale to station scale in the Sendai plain, Japan using transfer function method, and (2) estimate the potential range of groundwater temperature change in future from different GCM scenarios. Field observations of groundwater temperature and groundwater level were made in five observation wells. A water budget technique was applied to account for the changes of groundwater recharge in the future. A one-dimensional heat transport model was calibrated to the present day and used with the downscaled GCM results and potential recharge variations for predicting aquifer temperature change. The strongest effects were estimated that probably increase surface air temperature by 3.3°C and annual precipitation by 82 mm (7% from 1967 to 2006) during 2060-2099. The overall results show that the aquifer temperature, under the changed ground surface temperature and precipitation, will increase in a range of 1.1 to 2.6°C.
KW - Climate change
KW - Downscaling
KW - Groundwater temperature
KW - Sendai plain
KW - Transfer function
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=78951482722&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=78951482722&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:78951482722
SN - 9781907161001
T3 - IAHS-AISH Publication
SP - 264
EP - 276
BT - Trends and Sustainability of Groundwater in Highly Stressed Aquifers
T2 - Symposium HS.2 at the Joint Convention of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, IAHS and the International Association of Hydrogeologists, IAH
Y2 - 6 September 2009 through 12 September 2009
ER -