TY - JOUR
T1 - A simple SI-type model for HIV/AIDS with media and self-imposed psychological fear
AU - Ghosh, Indrajit
AU - Tiwari, Pankaj Kumar
AU - Samanta, Sudip
AU - Elmojtaba, Ibrahim M.
AU - Al-Salti, Nasser
AU - Chattopadhyay, Joydev
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Elsevier Inc.
PY - 2018/12
Y1 - 2018/12
N2 - Infectious diseases can have a large impact on society, as they cause morbidity, mortality, unemployment, inequality and other adverse effects. Mathematical models are invaluable tools in understanding and describing disease dynamics with preventive measures for controlling the disease. The roles of media coverage and behavioral changes due to externally imposed factors on the disease dynamics are well studied. However, the effect of self-imposed psychological fear on the disease transmission has not been considered in extant research, and this gap is addressed in the present investigation. We propose a simple SI-type model for HIV/AIDS to assess the effects of media and self-imposed psychological fear on the disease dynamics. Local and global dynamics of the system are studied. Global sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most influential parameters that have significant impact on the basic reproduction number. After calibrating our model using HIV case data-sets for Uganda and Tanzania, we calculate the basic reproduction numbers in the study period using the estimated parameters. Furthermore, a comparison of the effects of awareness and self-imposed psychological fear effects reveals that awareness is more effective in eliminating the burden of HIV infection.
AB - Infectious diseases can have a large impact on society, as they cause morbidity, mortality, unemployment, inequality and other adverse effects. Mathematical models are invaluable tools in understanding and describing disease dynamics with preventive measures for controlling the disease. The roles of media coverage and behavioral changes due to externally imposed factors on the disease dynamics are well studied. However, the effect of self-imposed psychological fear on the disease transmission has not been considered in extant research, and this gap is addressed in the present investigation. We propose a simple SI-type model for HIV/AIDS to assess the effects of media and self-imposed psychological fear on the disease dynamics. Local and global dynamics of the system are studied. Global sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most influential parameters that have significant impact on the basic reproduction number. After calibrating our model using HIV case data-sets for Uganda and Tanzania, we calculate the basic reproduction numbers in the study period using the estimated parameters. Furthermore, a comparison of the effects of awareness and self-imposed psychological fear effects reveals that awareness is more effective in eliminating the burden of HIV infection.
KW - Awareness
KW - Epidemic model
KW - Global sensitivity analysis
KW - HIV/AIDS
KW - Parameter estimation
KW - Self-imposed psychological fear
KW - Stability analysis
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U2 - 10.1016/j.mbs.2018.09.014
DO - 10.1016/j.mbs.2018.09.014
M3 - Article
C2 - 30291857
AN - SCOPUS:85055024987
SN - 0025-5564
VL - 306
SP - 160
EP - 169
JO - Mathematical Biosciences
JF - Mathematical Biosciences
ER -